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28 May 2015

Japan's Shinzo Abe hopes 'robot revolution' can replace ageing workforce


A new greeter at the entrance of the Mitsukoshi department store in central Tokyo has caused a stir. The worker, dressed in a kimono and cheerfully welcoming shoppers in honorific Japanese, is a robot made by Toshiba and shows how lifelike these machines can be.

This latest example of Japan's skill comes just as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is calling for a "robot revolution". Advances in robotic computing power, the ability to recognise voices and images, and machine learning could help the country overcome the handicap of a fast-ageing populace and a declining workforce.

At the opening of Japan's Robot Revolution Initiative Council on May 15, Abe urged companies to "spread the use of robotics from large-scale factories to every corner of our economy and society". Backed by 200 companies and universities, the five-year, government-led push aims to deepen the use of intelligent machines in manufacturing, supply chains, construction, and health care, while expanding robotics sales from 600 billion yen ($6.4 billion) annually to 2.4 trillion yen by 2020.

In factory robots, Japanese companies including Fanuc, Yaskawa Electric, and Kawasaki Heavy Industries command 50 per cent of the global market, says the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI). The nation's companies also enjoy a 90 per cent share in parts such as precision gears, servo motors to move robotic limbs, and specialised sensors.

Yet the government says Japan's premier position is at risk. China has 530 robotic companies, and its market share on the mainland grew from 4 per cent in 2012 to 13 per cent last year, a worrisome trend for Japanese companies that have enjoyed solid profits there.

NO ROBOTS FOR THE GOYIM
"Open borders are cheaper than robots; plus, robots can't vote you into a lifetime job."

"China is catching up fast," though quality remains an issue, says Wang Tianran, a robotics specialist with the Chinese Academy of Sciences. He thinks China will close the quality gap with Japan and South Korea by specialising in simple, smart, and flexible factory robots similar to Boston-based Rethink Robotics' Sawyer, a small, mobile factory model. South Korea has doubled the size of its robot sales since 2009 to 2.4 trillion won ($2.87 billion) in 2013. The country is working on service robots for health care and other markets. Unlike factory robots, "where Japan, Germany, and the US are dominant players, the intelligent service robot industry is still at a nascent state," says Jeong Man Tae, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics & Trade.

Japan is closely monitoring the progress of the industry in the US, where big defence budgets during the 2000s financed the deployment of thousands of robots, including unmanned aerial and underwater vehicles. Two years ago, US giant Google acquired Schaft, a startup founded by two University of Tokyo professors who had developed a robot that walks on two legs. Schaft failed to line up local venture funding before turning to Google. Waseda University mechanical engineering professor Atsuo Takanishi says: "If we don't create a culture of [venture] investment, there will be a lot of similar examples." 

Japan has a built-in edge over its rivals, starting with a deep and sophisticated domestic robotics industry, says Hal Sirkin, a senior partner and managing director at Boston Consulting. In factory robotics, "they can pretty much easily produce what they need." Cheaper sensors, motors, and computing power have driven the cost of some industrial robots to as low as $US25,000 ($32,640), down from $US100,000 just a few years ago. That means small and midsize companies can afford advanced machines. With Japan's declining workforce, job displacement will not be as much of a barrier to rolling out more machines as it would in the US. By 2025, Japan's robots could shave 25 per cent off factory labour costs, says BCG.

Japan's inefficient service sector — it is only about 60 per cent as productive as its US counterpart, says METI — could benefit. The government wants machines to provide logistical support, perform surgery, and work in disaster recovery in the quake-prone nation. Other priorities are commercial drones and nurse robots. Panasonic has developed a robot that transforms from a bed to a wheelchair, while a startup, Cyberdyne, has created devices that help the infirm move around. Says Yoshiko Yurugi, a robotics expert at the New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organisation: "We are entering an era when we will definitely have to rely on the help of robots."