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19 March 2016
Trumpzilla: Why the Polls Actually Show Trump Beats Hillary
Yes, I know. Donald Trump has something like a 63 percent negative number in the polls; they tell me. Or maybe it's 70 percent. Wait! It's ‘negative, twenty-five negative.’ That used to mean something. It doesn't any longer. Now, it’s just garbage. Why? Copper. Yes, Copper.
When everyone had a hard-wired telephone, it was easy to call a household by demographical information and weight the calls based on age, race, income and other factors. Now, it's nearly impossible to get that right. And, even if pollsters do, the person being polled might still be lying.
Let's face it. If I call a cell phone owned by Bryan Crabtree, I might get my assistant, my wife, or end up in Google Voice. Let's say I was personally being polled. My favorable vote wouldn't be counted for Donald Trump or Ted Cruz. Why? To start, I don't answer my phones. And, if it's not a client, friend or family member, I'm not returning the call either. Life's too busy. I have two kids. I’m married. The last thing I want to do is share my opinion with some political hack.
So who answers polls? These are traditionalists who have a single-cell phone - the flip phone - remember that Motorola flip phone we all had? That's the one. Or, they still have a land-line. These are the mainstream Republicans who favor more traditional candidates. Jeb Bush received two and a half times the polling support than he actually received in the Iowa Caucus. I rest my case.
But, in case you are not convinced, there's another phenomenon that has occurred this political season. Many voters are answering the poll question in the manner that best helps their candidate. For instance, let's say I support Ted Cruz. A pollster calls me and asks me what I think of Donald Trump. He could even be my second choice, but I still answer all the questions regarding Trump very unfavorably. The culmination of such answers skew the results so that Ted Cruz appears more electable than Donald Trump. In reality, if Ted Cruz dropped out of the race, much of his support would translate to Trump. Polls are missing these trends.
The foregoing has always occurred, but it's happening in bigger numbers this cycle due to enhanced emotional turmoil.
General election polls with hypothetical candidates concerning an election eight months way have been accurately called 'Political Viagra.' They get a rise out of everyone, for a short bout of fun, but don’t do much the following day. The polling that matters isn't really polling at all. It’s studying behavioral trends of the electorate. Too many people use emotions to make their decisions and can be too easily swayed at the last minute.
In 2012, Mitt Romney was the Republican nominee with just over 10,000,000 votes. Thus far, the eligible-voter turnout for the Republican contests has been more than double what we saw in 2012. Trump is approaching 7,000,000 votes in the face of vehement competition and a viscous series of assaults, slams and bruising. In spite of all those assaults, he has become 'Trumpzilla.' Democrat strategist Van Jones opined on CNN that he was smashing through the village crushing powerful Governors and Senators in his path. He added that Democrats better wake up because based on the current trajectory, Trump handily beats Clinton.
Democrats are becoming very nervous, yet realistic. Senator Al Franken, in his argument for Merrick Garland (President Obama's Supreme Court nominee) stated, “[For] a lot of people who don't want to see Donald Trump nominate the next justice of The Supreme Court [we need to pass this nominee]." It's as if Franken is already remiss to Hillary Clinton’s loss accepting a reality that Donald Trump is going to be the next President.
Why don't establishment Republicans see this reality? Many are too emotional. They've wanted a fighter, but they aren't strong enough to take the pressure, change and heat that a fighter actually brings. It scares them. Let's face it. After 8 years of liberal assaults (one after another), I empathize with the #nevertrump conservatives; I feel sorry for them. They're broken, defeated and desperate. They are in no condition to be making long-term decisions.
They do have one valid concern. My estimation of the demographics and behavior is that Trump will bring at least 10,000,000, if not as many as 20,000,000 new voters to the party; some will be first time voters. These new voters will proudly vote for Donald Trump, while voting for Democrat senators and congressmen. The establishment’s concern for Trump shouldn't be his ability to defeat Clinton. They should be concerned with how his tsunami of voters might vote on other races that are also critically important. They seem to be ignoring that risk in favor of throwing pebbles at Trumpzilla.
If I had to place a bet (and I won't), I'd place it on a strong Trump victory, followed by a loss of either the House or the Senate for the Republicans. They’re too unfocused.
These emotional Republicans are going to spend all their energy and money trying to stop Trump. The real concern shouldn't be whether Trump can win or how they can stop him. These #nevertrump people should be focused on keeping the Senate and House Republican-controlled so we can reverse Obama’s damage.
Instead, it appears the punditry-class and establishment-class of the Republican Party want to blow up Trumpzilla and themselves all in one fail swoop. If #nevertrump doesn't stop we could hand Hillary Clinton the election, while Republicans lose both the House and Senate. Is that what they want?
Who’s fault would that be? It would be the delusional, Republican boys and girls who are still fighting a battle they’ve lost. Trump should pick Cruz for vice president and John Kasich should suspend his campaign so we can defeat the liberalism that’s ruining our culture and nation.
Donald Trump Beats The Snot Out Of Hillary In Head-To-Head Contest, Trump Takes 70% Of The Electoral Votes
Based on an average of the RCP (Real Clear Politics) polling data from all the states and all the “head to head” matchups between Donald Trump (by far the winner of the GOP) and Hillary Clinton (The winner of the Democratic Party) shows bad news for the Democrats.
Clinton is losing handily in all the swing states, and is even losing Democrat strongholds of Maryland, Connecticut, and Oregon.
According to many polls, and the averages, Clinton cannot even hold on to California and New York without a major fight. On the bright side for the Democrat party, they make gains in the south as Obama is now off the ticket.
Trump would defeat Hillary Clinton by 5 percentage points nationwide: getting 52% and Clinton gathering 47% (presuming the pollsters are citing the popular vote.