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06 August 2016

Despite a week of media attack frenzy, Trump pulls even with Clinton in new poll


Republican nominee for president of the United States Donald Trump is rapidly gaining support among likely voters against Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll that was released this morning by Reuters. The poll, which was conducted from July 31 to August 4 and included 1,154 likely voters, had a margin of error of three percentage points. With the Republican National Convention and the Democratic National Convention in the rearview mirror, it appears as though things may be balancing out after each candidate received a boost from their respective convention.
“About 42 percent of likely voters favored Clinton, to Trump’s 39 percent, according to the July 31-Aug. 4 online poll of 1,154 likely voters. The poll had a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points, meaning that the results suggest the race is roughly even. Among registered voters over the same period, Clinton held a lead of five percentage points, down from eight percentage points on Monday, according to the poll. The reasons behind the shift were unclear. Clinton had pulled well ahead of Trump on the heels of the Democratic National Convention last week, where she became the first woman to accept the U.S. presidential nomination from a major political party.”
While Clinton is still ahead by three percentage points, the margin of error is three points. That means Trump and Clinton should be considered even. During a Reuters/Ipsos poll that was taken from July 25-29, 41 percent of likely voters favored Clinton, and 35 percent favored Trump. The margin of error was four percentage points, so Clinton was in the lead by two points last week.

It is currently unknown why Trump has narrowed the gap over Clinton in the last week. As usual, Trump has involved himself in numerous controversies. While Trump was originally reluctant to endorse the re-elections of Speaker Paul Ryan and Senator John McCain, he finally ended up doing it last night, as the New York Times reports. Regardless of Trump’s endorsement, it shows the current instability of the Republican Party.

Additionally, Trump started a feud with Khizr Khan, the father of a fallen United States soldier. Khan, who is a Muslim, attacked Trump at the Democratic National Convention. While Trump could have simply ignored Khan, he spent days defending himself. Regardless of Khan’s apparent attack, Trump probably took things a little too far. Instead of focusing on Clinton, Trump instead made derogatory comments about Khan’s wife, Ghazala, and the fact that she did not speak at the Democratic National Convention.

In addition to Democrats and undecided voters, Trump’s comments about Khan and his family have also made Republicans uneasy. Many people believe that the president of the United States needs to have composure, and it appears as though Trump has a short fuse when it comes to being attacked. Despite Trump’s recent blunders, it appears as though he is still very much alive in the race with Clinton.

As the Inquisitr previously reported, the Reuters/Ipsos poll recently made a change to their methodology. While the poll previously allowed participants to select an option of “Neither/Other,” Reuters/Ipsos removed the option “Neither.” Since both candidates have low likability ratings among potential voters, Reuters claimed that the change would not favor either candidate.

Breitbart believed that the change in methodology was put into place to favor Clinton, but last week’s poll, which showed Clinton up by six percentage points, was conducted online. Since it is thought that potential voters are reluctant to tell a live telephone operator that they favor trump, the methodology change should not affect online polls, which last week’s poll was. The poll released earlier today was also conducted online, so the methodology change was probably not a factor in the two latest polls.

With November’s election only three months away, the polls between Republican nominee for president of the United States Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton are likely going to continue to be volatile. If Trump can stay on topic and cut down on his personal attacks, there is a real chance that he could regain his lead over Clinton in the coming weeks.

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