Analysis by Harry Enten, CNN
Donald Trump starts 2020 in the worst polling position since Harry Truman
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Early life and education
Harry Enten was raised in a Jewish family[1][5][6][7] in the Riverdale neighborhood of The Bronx, New York City.[4] Harry was introduced to politics as a child when his father, a judge, took him into the polling booth to help pull the levers for elections. He attended Riverdale Country School. He is the nephew, by marriage, of singer-songwriter Neil Sedaka.[6]
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(CNN) Poll of the week: A NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds that former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump 52% to 43% in a general election matchup.
An average of all polls this month puts Biden's advantage at a similar 7 points.
What's the point: For all intents and purposes, the general election campaign is underway. Yes, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is still running, but he has no realistic path to winning the Democratic nomination. That means that it's Biden vs. Trump.
And the President starts out in a very unusual place for an incumbent: behind. Trump is the first incumbent president to be trailing at this point in the general election cycle (i.e. late March in the election year) since Harry Truman in 1948.
Now, we're still more than half a year away from the election. It would be easy to dismiss Biden's advantage as meaningless. To do so, however, would be a mistake in my opinion.
Polling at this point in the general election cycle when an incumbent is running is correlated with the ultimate outcome. A candidate in Biden's position would win the popular vote about two-thirds of the time if historical trends hold.
Moreover, there's something to be said about the (((consistency of Biden's edge))). Despite the ever-shifting news cycle, Biden's lead in the average of polls has been between 5 and 10 points throughout the last year. In other words, Trump's general election polling has stayed stable, just like his approval ratings.
An average of all polls this month puts Biden's advantage at a similar 7 points.
What's the point: For all intents and purposes, the general election campaign is underway. Yes, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is still running, but he has no realistic path to winning the Democratic nomination. That means that it's Biden vs. Trump.
And the President starts out in a very unusual place for an incumbent: behind. Trump is the first incumbent president to be trailing at this point in the general election cycle (i.e. late March in the election year) since Harry Truman in 1948.
Now, we're still more than half a year away from the election. It would be easy to dismiss Biden's advantage as meaningless. To do so, however, would be a mistake in my opinion.
Polling at this point in the general election cycle when an incumbent is running is correlated with the ultimate outcome. A candidate in Biden's position would win the popular vote about two-thirds of the time if historical trends hold.
Moreover, there's something to be said about the (((consistency of Biden's edge))). Despite the ever-shifting news cycle, Biden's lead in the average of polls has been between 5 and 10 points throughout the last year. In other words, Trump's general election polling has stayed stable, just like his approval ratings.
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WHORE PUPPET Chris Cillizza, CNN Editor-at-large, piles on:
(CNN) In the past five days, two of the most prominent non-partisan political analysts in the country have released new projections that show presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden with a clear edge over President Donald Trump in the Electoral College map.
"The President is an underdog now in his bid for a second term," wrote Stu Rothenberg, founder of the Rothenberg Political Report, in a column published late last week. "That doesn't mean he can't win. It simply means that he is in a more difficult place than he was before, in part because Democrats have united behind a consensus candidate who has potentially broad appeal."
