The Tories' future is threatened by their lack of minority appeal
Whites' future is being threaten by the organized campaign of genocide being waged against them
The Tories do have a deep-seated problem when it comes to the "ethnic vote".
Party strategists wince at the results of the ethnic minority British election study, which analysed the 2010 figures. Just 16% of black and minority ethnic groups voted Conservative, compared to 68% backing Labour. To put that in perspective, it means Mr Cameron did worse among minority groups in Britain in 2010 than Mitt Romney did among non-whites in 2012. And that was a US election failure that has left the Republicans wondering if their party can survive a fast-changing population.
Mr Cameron will be relieved to know that the British non-white population is 14%, significantly lower than in America. But when you consider the similar demographic trend – one in four under-10s is non-white – you start to grasp the scale of the Tory challenge. One senior adviser fears that securing 16% of this growing vote in 2020, 2025 or beyond will not just squeeze majorities but crush the party. The party faces an "existential threat" if it fails to increase its appeal dramatically, he tells me. "It has taken years to get us into this mess. It will take a long time to unpick."
The frustration for the Tories is that they might expect some of these groups to choose them over Labour. The election study found that while better-off white people were significantly more likely to vote Conservative than their less wealthy counterparts, the same was not true for non-whites. That is despite the fact that minority groups were more right wing than the majority on the key issue of tax and spend. The one silver lining is that minorities, obviously, do not vote as a monolithic block; while only 6% of African background voted Tory, 24% of Indian background did.
Still, the picture facing Conservatives is that high-income people, politically on the right, who want a smaller government (and a tough stance on crime and immigration according to other studies) are still much less likely to vote Tory if they are non-white. Whatever the offer, they simply think this is not a party for people like them. Many of these groups have values that Conservatives consider closely aligned to their own. The view put forward by former prime minister John Major last week, about immigrants having a "very Conservative instinct", is shared at high levels. One senior figure thinks the aspirational values of anyone who uproots their family to move to Britain should chime with the party.
Now the party is trying to mirror an aggressive ethnic-outreach effort carried out in Canada. Several meetings have already taken place with politician Jason Kenney, who spearheaded an effort that drove the support of "visible minorities" for his Conservative party to 31%. "Just imagine what it would mean if we could do that here," said one politician, arguing it could also cut into Labour's base. Sources say the lessons they have drawn from Canada are threefold: first, that "showing up" at community events matters; second, that it is imperative to engage heavily with specialist minority media; and third, to mind your language.
"We were absent; now we are everywhere," says one source on the first point. They comment on how the Curry awards were always attended by a plethora of shadow cabinet members. This year, Mr Cameron spoke. He also travelled to the holy Sikh Golden Temple in Amritsar and took his wife, Samantha, dressed in a traditional sari, to a Hindu Diwali celebration in northwest London. The same is being asked of MPs and candidates. Not just a photocall but ongoing, serious engagement.
Advisers insist it is more than window-dressing, arguing that turning up shows respect but also provides the opportunity to listen to and act on what Mr Kenney calls micro-issues. One example picked up by the Tories is health and safety rules linked to turbans in the workplace. On a wider scale, policies on forced marriage and stop and search are part of this drive. Meanwhile, the party has hired full-time staff to engage with specialist ethnic minority media. And that is not just print media such as the Eastern Eye and the Voice, but Asian television channels from which many people get their news. Tory staff scrutinise the number of stories breaking through in specialist press and broadcasting, compared with Labour, and send that weekly information to all MPs. They believe they are doing well.
As for language, I remember feeling uncomfortable when the prime minister declared in a speech that multiculturalism had failed. He was using the "Whitehall definition" of multiculturalism, which he described as a policy that concentrated on the differences between ethnic communities. Yet many people didn't see the nuance and felt he was attacking the very nature of diversity. Polls suggest it went down badly with ethnic minorities. Another interesting point is that even when people support an idea (many minorities take a tough stance on immigration for example), finding out it is a Tory policy puts them off. The polling that revealed this tendency in 2005 was a central part of the Conservative modernisers' arguments to try to detoxify the brand.
This ethnic engagement is a longer-term part of that drive, one that some think could take decades to complete. And yet Labour would argue that any such plan has already been railroaded by the threat of Ukip and the rising influence of rightwing backbenchers. "This is not just about Enoch Powell and Norman Tebbit. Its is also about modern-day Tories like Lynton Crosby, Gove and Cameron himself," said a senior source.
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Colour-blind love is the mark of a healthy and dynamic society
In Britain, there are ever more 'mixed' marriages...
There are more and more couples getting together across ethnic divides
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